Shared analysis2026-10-04

BTC-USD · daily cycle analysis

Random Walk regime · Hurst 0.560 · 59-bar daily cycle. Snapshot captured 2026-10-04 from a live FractalCycles analysis.

Hurst exponent

0.560

trending

Regime

Random Walk

Confidence 100%

Dominant cycle

59.0 bars

Next peak in 43 · trough in 14

Significant cycles

Out of 20 candidates

Price + composite cycle

Detrended composite of 3 selected cycles, scaled and overlaid on the most recent 600 bars. The dashed segment shows the cycle composite projected forward 243 bars.

Detected cycles

Cycles ranked by spectral power. Statistical significance is tested against the Bartels distribution against the platform default threshold; only cycles below that threshold are flagged significant.

Rank	Period (bars)	Bartels p	Significant	In composite	Phase	Next peak	Next trough
1	59.00	100.000	Yes	No	Falling below zero	43	14
2	83.00	100.000	Yes	Yes	Just past peak	82	41
3	27.00	100.000	Yes	No	Falling below zero	20	6
4	32.00	100.000	Yes	No	Falling toward zero	27	11
5	6.00	0.000	No	No	Just past peak	6	3
6	8.00	100.000	Yes	No	Falling toward zero	6	2
7	164.00	100.000	Yes	Yes	Approaching peak	20	102
8	243.00	100.000	Yes	Yes	Rising toward zero	74	195
9	29.00	100.000	Yes	No	Falling toward zero	23	8
10	23.00	100.000	Yes	No	Falling below zero	16	5
11	13.00	100.000	Yes	No	Approaching peak	0	7
12	18.00	100.000	Yes	No	Approaching trough	10	1
13	130.00	100.000	Yes	No	Just past peak	115	50
14	113.00	100.000	Yes	No	Falling toward zero	85	29
15	36.00	100.000	Yes	No	Just past peak	32	14

Power spectrum

Goertzel-DFT power across the analyzed period range. Peaks indicate candidate cycle lengths; statistical significance is tested separately via Bartels.

How this snapshot was produced

Detrend method: hodrick-prescott. Sampling cadence: daily. Total bars analyzed: 900.

FractalCycles applies the Goertzel discrete Fourier transform across a candidate period range, tests each peak against the Bartels distribution for statistical significance, and classifies the current regime via the Hurst exponent (rescaled-range analysis). This snapshot represents the analysis output at the moment of sharing and does not update as new bars print.