Shared analysis2026-10-14

BTC-USD · daily cycle analysis

Random Walk regime · Hurst 0.588 · 120-bar daily cycle. Snapshot captured 2026-10-14 from a live FractalCycles analysis.

Hurst exponent

0.588

trending

Regime

Random Walk

Confidence 99%

Dominant cycle

120.0 bars

Next peak in 89 · trough in 29

Significant cycles

Out of 20 candidates

Price + composite cycle

Detrended composite of 3 selected cycles, scaled and overlaid on the most recent 600 bars. The dashed segment shows the cycle composite projected forward 157 bars.

Detected cycles

Cycles ranked by spectral power. Statistical significance is tested against the Bartels distribution against the platform default threshold; only cycles below that threshold are flagged significant.

Rank	Period (bars)	Bartels p	Significant	In composite	Phase	Next peak	Next trough
1	120.00	100.000	Yes	Yes	Falling below zero	89	29
2	85.00	100.000	Yes	Yes	Falling toward zero	70	27
3	37.00	100.000	Yes	No	Falling toward zero	28	10
4	43.00	100.000	Yes	No	Falling toward zero	36	14
5	157.00	100.000	Yes	Yes	Just past peak	151	73
6	23.00	100.000	Yes	No	Rising from trough	3	14
7	33.00	100.000	Yes	No	Falling below zero	23	6
8	28.00	100.000	Yes	No	Approaching trough	17	3
9	7.00	0.000	No	No	Falling toward zero	5	2
10	18.00	100.000	Yes	No	Falling toward zero	15	6
11	59.00	100.000	Yes	No	Falling below zero	44	14
12	50.00	100.000	Yes	No	Falling toward zero	42	17
13	35.00	100.000	Yes	No	Falling below zero	26	8
14	72.00	100.000	Yes	No	Falling toward zero	56	20
15	67.00	100.000	Yes	No	Falling below zero	49	16

Power spectrum

Goertzel-DFT power across the analyzed period range. Peaks indicate candidate cycle lengths; statistical significance is tested separately via Bartels.

How this snapshot was produced

Detrend method: hodrick-prescott. Sampling cadence: daily. Total bars analyzed: 600.

FractalCycles applies the Goertzel discrete Fourier transform across a candidate period range, tests each peak against the Bartels distribution for statistical significance, and classifies the current regime via the Hurst exponent (rescaled-range analysis). This snapshot represents the analysis output at the moment of sharing and does not update as new bars print.