Shared analysis2026-10-19

BTC-USD · daily cycle analysis

Random Walk regime · Hurst 0.588 · 120-bar daily cycle. Snapshot captured 2026-10-19 from a live FractalCycles analysis.

Hurst exponent

0.588

trending

Regime

Random Walk

Confidence 99%

Dominant cycle

120.0 bars

Next peak in 89 · trough in 29

Significant cycles

Out of 20 candidates

Price + composite cycle

Detrended composite of 3 selected cycles, scaled and overlaid on the most recent 600 bars. The dashed segment shows the cycle composite projected forward 157 bars.

Detected cycles

Cycles ranked by spectral power. Statistical significance is tested against the Bartels distribution against the platform default threshold; only cycles below that threshold are flagged significant.

Rank	Period (bars)	Bartels p	Significant	In composite	Phase	Next peak	Next trough
1	120.00	100.000	Yes	Yes	Falling below zero	84	24
2	85.00	100.000	Yes	Yes	Falling toward zero	65	22
3	37.00	100.000	Yes	No	Falling below zero	23	5
4	43.00	100.000	Yes	No	Falling below zero	31	9
5	157.00	100.000	Yes	Yes	Just past peak	146	68
6	23.00	100.000	Yes	No	Just past peak	21	9
7	33.00	100.000	Yes	No	Approaching trough	18	1
8	28.00	100.000	Yes	No	Just past trough	12	26
9	7.00	0.000	No	No	Approaching peak	0	4
10	18.00	100.000	Yes	No	Approaching trough	10	1
11	59.00	100.000	Yes	No	Falling below zero	39	9
12	50.00	100.000	Yes	No	Falling below zero	37	12
13	35.00	100.000	Yes	No	Approaching trough	21	3
14	72.00	100.000	Yes	No	Falling below zero	51	15
15	67.00	100.000	Yes	No	Falling below zero	44	11

Power spectrum

Goertzel-DFT power across the analyzed period range. Peaks indicate candidate cycle lengths; statistical significance is tested separately via Bartels.

How this snapshot was produced

Detrend method: hodrick-prescott. Sampling cadence: daily. Total bars analyzed: 600.

FractalCycles applies the Goertzel discrete Fourier transform across a candidate period range, tests each peak against the Bartels distribution for statistical significance, and classifies the current regime via the Hurst exponent (rescaled-range analysis). This snapshot represents the analysis output at the moment of sharing and does not update as new bars print.