Research

There are two ways to find out what people expect from the economy: ask them, or watch what they do with their money. Right now the two are telling opposite stories. Consumer sentiment printed record lows while spending grew and long-run breakevens held anchored. This research note reviews the forecasting record of survey-based versus market-based expectations, the known failure modes of each instrument, and a framework for treating their divergence as information.

Published July 29, 2026

Apparent cycles emerge in any sufficiently long financial price series, including pure random walks. This paper surveys the statistical validation problem at the heart of cycle detection and reviews three canonical tools imported into finance from older disciplines: Goertzel narrowband DFT, Bartels significance testing, and the Hurst exponent. We argue that detection without a strict null model is curve-fitting, and consolidate primary-source references to inform future cycle claims.

Published April 30, 2026